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VINCYPOWA · 07-05-2008, 10:10 PM

Five-Day B.O. Estimates: 'Hancock' All-Time No. 2 Fourth of July Movie

By Steve Mason | Saturday, July 05, 2008

HOLLYWOOD - Exhibitors and distributors alike were less-than-thrilled with the prospect of Independence Day landing on a Friday. The Fourth of July is not a traditionally strong day for movie-going because of the beach or the lake, family barbeques and, of course, fireworks. With the holiday landing on a Friday, the industry expected to take this hit on a key day of the week, where a significant chunk of tickets are sold.

Despite that, Will Smith's Hancock (Sony) has posted the all-time No. 2 Fourth of July take with an estimated $18.8M, trailing only Spider-Man 2's $21.95M.

ALL-TIME BEST FOURTH OF JULY PERFORMANCES
1. Spider-Man 2 - $21.95M
2. Hancock - $18.8M (estimate)
3. Independence Day - $17.34M
4. Men in Black II - $16.49M
5. Men in Black - $15.72M
6. Terminator 3 - $13.03
7. War of the Worlds - $12.18M
8. Superman Returns - $10.51M
9. The Perfect Storm - $9.02M
10. Terminator 2: Judgment Day - $8.87M

The weekend projection is a bit tricky. Tuesday-Thursday will have siphoned off some of Hancock's business, but the Fourth of July festivities will probably mean a better-than-usual Friday-to-Saturday increase. After wrestling with the numbers and spending time with a number of key numbers-crunchers at competing studios, I am projecting a $26M Saturday for Hancock followed by $18M on Sunday. That would give the Peter Berg-directed superhero flick to a five and a half day total of $103.23M or so.

For some reason, the long knives seem to be out for Hancock. To be clear, $100M+ in five and a half days is not a disappointment in any way, shape or form. We have certainly come to expect a great deal from Will Smith, and when the release schedule was set, people may have expected a bigger opening, but, if the number holds, this is an excellent start.

By Monday, Will Smith will have grabbed his 12th $100M+ grossing film, tied with Harrison Ford and trailing only Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy.

MOST $100M+ HITS IN A CAREER
(Including animated films & excluding cameos)
Tom Hanks: 15
Tom Cruise: 14
Eddie Murphy: 13
Will Smith and Harrison Ford: 12 (including Hancock)
Jim Carrey and Robin Williams: 11
Mel Gibson and Matt Damon: 9
Bruce Willis and Jack Nicholson: 8

Will Smith, however, will have achieved something unprecedented--a feat never done by the Toms - Hanks and Cruise. Hancock will be his eighth consecutive $100M+ grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both had career-best streaks of seven films with $100M+. Here is Will's current streak.

2002: Men in Black II; $52.14M opening; $190.41M cume
2003: Bad Boys II; $46.52M opening; $138.6M cume
2004: I, Robot; $52.17M opening; $144.8M cume
2004: Shark Tale; $47.6M opening; $160.86M cume
2005: Hitch; $43.12M opening; $179.49M cume
2006: The Pursuit of Happyness; $26.54M opening; $163.56M cume
2007: I Am Legend; $77.21M opening; $256.39M cume
2008: Hancock--estimated $103.23M by Monday

07-05-2008, 10:10 PM	#56 (permalink)
VINCYPOWA Registered User Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: America Posts: 47,821	Five-Day B.O. Estimates: 'Hancock' All-Time No. 2 Fourth of July Movie By Steve Mason \| Saturday, July 05, 2008 HOLLYWOOD - Exhibitors and distributors alike were less-than-thrilled with the prospect of Independence Day landing on a Friday. The Fourth of July is not a traditionally strong day for movie-going because of the beach or the lake, family barbeques and, of course, fireworks. With the holiday landing on a Friday, the industry expected to take this hit on a key day of the week, where a significant chunk of tickets are sold. Despite that, Will Smith's Hancock (Sony) has posted the all-time No. 2 Fourth of July take with an estimated $18.8M, trailing only Spider-Man 2's $21.95M. ALL-TIME BEST FOURTH OF JULY PERFORMANCES 1. Spider-Man 2 - $21.95M 2. Hancock - $18.8M (estimate) 3. Independence Day - $17.34M 4. Men in Black II - $16.49M 5. Men in Black - $15.72M 6. Terminator 3 - $13.03 7. War of the Worlds - $12.18M 8. Superman Returns - $10.51M 9. The Perfect Storm - $9.02M 10. Terminator 2: Judgment Day - $8.87M The weekend projection is a bit tricky. Tuesday-Thursday will have siphoned off some of Hancock's business, but the Fourth of July festivities will probably mean a better-than-usual Friday-to-Saturday increase. After wrestling with the numbers and spending time with a number of key numbers-crunchers at competing studios, I am projecting a $26M Saturday for Hancock followed by $18M on Sunday. That would give the Peter Berg-directed superhero flick to a five and a half day total of $103.23M or so. For some reason, the long knives seem to be out for Hancock. To be clear, $100M+ in five and a half days is not a disappointment in any way, shape or form. We have certainly come to expect a great deal from Will Smith, and when the release schedule was set, people may have expected a bigger opening, but, if the number holds, this is an excellent start. By Monday, Will Smith will have grabbed his 12th $100M+ grossing film, tied with Harrison Ford and trailing only Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy. MOST $100M+ HITS IN A CAREER (Including animated films & excluding cameos) Tom Hanks: 15 Tom Cruise: 14 Eddie Murphy: 13 Will Smith and Harrison Ford: 12 (including Hancock) Jim Carrey and Robin Williams: 11 Mel Gibson and Matt Damon: 9 Bruce Willis and Jack Nicholson: 8 Will Smith, however, will have achieved something unprecedented--a feat never done by the Toms - Hanks and Cruise. Hancock will be his eighth consecutive $100M+ grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both had career-best streaks of seven films with $100M+. Here is Will's current streak. 2002: Men in Black II; $52.14M opening; $190.41M cume 2003: Bad Boys II; $46.52M opening; $138.6M cume 2004: I, Robot; $52.17M opening; $144.8M cume 2004: Shark Tale; $47.6M opening; $160.86M cume 2005: Hitch; $43.12M opening; $179.49M cume 2006: The Pursuit of Happyness; $26.54M opening; $163.56M cume 2007: I Am Legend; $77.21M opening; $256.39M cume 2008: Hancock--estimated $103.23M by Monday